United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 11

With it being the final round before the Six Nations break, teams will be seeking to finish this block on the right note.

The Lions and the Bulls are back from their trips abroad and will renew their rivalry in the Jukskei derby at Ellis Park, before the Sharks and the Stormers square off for the second time in as many weeks at Kings Park.

Benetton v Scarlets

Friday, 30 January – 21:45

Benetton won’t be caught off guard by the Scarlets after the events of last weekend. The 10th-placed Italians are in need of a win to stay within reach of the top eight after their 17-8 away loss to Cardiff, while the Scarlets served up a 27-22 upset against Ulster.

The five-point triumph snapped a five-match losing streak in all competitions and showed Benetton that they can’t afford to underestimate the Welsh side, even if they are second from bottom on the log. The Scarlets will also take heart from the fact that they played to a 20-all draw on their last visit to Treviso.

Benetton, however, have won 12 of their last 15 home games, so they should see off the visitors.

Prediction: Benetton by 9.  

Suggested Bet: Scarlets +11 at 1.90.

Glasgow Warriors v Munster

Friday, 30 January – 21:45

A compelling clash is in store in Glasgow as Munster aim to reassert themselves as top title contenders by taking down the hard-charging Warriors.

Franco Smith’s troops are on a phenomenal run, which has seen them win 11 of their last 12 games in all competitions, including toppling French giants Toulouse.

While it wasn’t their finest performance, their 26-21 away victory over Zebre last weekend extended their winning streak to eight and saw them overtake the Stormers at the top of the table.

Munster have cooled down considerably after starting their campaign with five straight wins. Edging the lowly Dragons 22-20 last weekend was underwhelming, but it did end a two-match losing streak in all competitions.

In fifth place, Munster could make a major statement by cutting down the Warriors, but it’s the hosts who’ll be standing tall after 80 minutes.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 6.  

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors -1 at 1.90.

Lions v Bulls

Saturday, 31 January – 14:30

Whereas the Stormers will be fuelled by revenge when they run it back against the Sharks, it won’t be the Bulls’ driving force in the first of Saturday’s South African derbies.

Yes, they’re eager to repay the Pride for the surprise 43-33 loss they inflicted on them at Loftus Versfeld in November, but the Bulls will focus on further building on their processes and momentum from their back-to-back tour wins over Pau (26-24) and Edinburgh (19-17). Do that, and the result should take care of itself.

The Lions, on the other hand, will look to get over the hump after successive draws with Perpignan (20-20) and the Ospreys (24-24). Ivan van Rooyen’s men could and should have won both games and will have to show smarter game management if they want to do the double over their neighbours.

That’s especially true as the Bulls are unlikely to fall into the trap that cost them in the previous Jukskei derby – playing fast and loose, which is right in the Lions’ wheelhouse. Instead, expect them to lay the foundation up front and use their driving maul, which has resurfaced as a primary weapon and produced two tries last weekend.

The hosts will have their moments, but the Bulls’ brains and brawn should see them come out on top.

Prediction: Bulls by 7.

Suggested Bet: Bulls -5 at 1.90.

Zebre v Connacht

Saturday, 31 January – 17:00

Someone’s losing streak in the URC is set to come to an end in Parma. Zebre have lost eight in a row, while Connacht have come up short in their last four. To be fair to the latter, two of their losses were to powerhouses Leinster.

The Irish side have a higher ceiling than Zebre, who find themselves at the bottom of the log, and have won the last eight encounters against the Italian minnows, so they should be the ones who return to the win column.

Prediction: Connacht by 8.

Suggested Bet: Connacht -7 at 1.90.

Sharks v Stormers

Saturday, 31 January – 17:00

“The challenge in rugby is always if you can double up .”

That was the key statement that came out of Sharks interim coach JP Pietersen’s post-match press conference after his team’s shock 30-19 triumph over the Stormers in Cape Town last weekend.

With it being a South African derby, form went out the window as the lowly Sharks handed the hosts their first defeat of the season. The Durbanites were the hungrier and more clinical team, taking the fight to their much-vaunted opponents to break their URC duck in the Mother City.

Error-strewn, ill-disciplined and individualistic, the Stormers would’ve kicked themselves in the aftermath of the loss, which saw them surrender top spot on the log, and will be hell-bent on setting the record straight in the Durban rematch.   

The Sharks are a different team since Pietersen took over, and they’ll know that their coastal counterparts will be fired up to claim revenge. The confidence-boosting win came at a cost, though, with loose forwards Siya Kolisi, Manu Tshituka and Phepsi Buthelezi all picking up injuries.

Having fizzled out in recent weeks after their scorching start to the season and finally coming unstuck last weekend, I believe the loss will prove to be the wake-up call the Capetonians needed to click back into gear.

I’m expecting them to be more cohesive, committed, accurate and physical, with some powerful forwards possibly returning. Add the fact that consistency has been an issue for the Sharks, and I see the Stormers turning the tables.

Prediction: Stormers by 3.

Suggested Bet: Stormers -1 at 1.90.

Leinster v Edinburgh

Saturday, 31 January – 19:30

After claiming a 10th consecutive win in all competitions with a 34-23 away victory over Connacht last weekend, Leinster are firm favourites for good reason.

Last weekend’s 19-17 loss to the Bulls, after leading by 12 at the break, was a microcosm of Edinburgh’s campaign. Their pragmatism saw them get off to a perfect start and they’re experts at disrupting the opposition’s lineout, but they struggle to sustain their efforts.

Down in 12th place with just three wins from nine, they won’t trouble the high-flying defending champions.

Prediction: Leinster by 14.

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh +17 at 1.90.

Ulster v Cardiff

Saturday, 31 January – 21:45

Coming off a loss and hosting a team two places above them in fourth, this is a huge game for Ulster.

Even though they played away from home, the Irish outfit were expected to beat the Scarlets last weekend. Instead, they went down 27-22, bringing their four-game winning streak in all competitions to an end.

Cardiff have exceeded expectations so far to sit among the top five, and beat Benetton 17-8 last weekend. That said, they’ve alternated results in their last eight matches in all competitions, and that trend should continue in Belfast.

Prediction: Ulster by 6.

Suggested Bet: Cardiff +13 at 1.90.

Ospreys v Dragons

Saturday, 31 January – 21:45

The pressure will be on the hosts in this Welsh derby.

In eighth place, one point ahead of the Bulls – who have a game in hand – the Ospreys can’t afford to slip up in this one, especially after last weekend’s draw with the Lions.

The Dragons may be in lowly 13th place, but they’ve been very competitive against their fellow countrymen. Their clash with the Ospreys in October ended in a 19-all stalemate, while they beat the Scarlets 28-5 and narrowly lost their two ties against Cardiff (24-17 and 22-19).

To counter that, the Ospreys are unbeaten against local rivals and top the Welsh Shield with wins over Cardiff (33-22) and the Scarlets (26-19), along with the draw with the Dragons. Thus, it might be closer than many expect, but the Ospreys ought to prevail.  

Prediction: Ospreys by 9.

Suggested Bet: Ospreys -6 at 1.90.