Chiefs are leading chance creators in the league, but why are they struggling for goals?

Yet, Chiefs are the leading shit takers in the league, yet even that has ebbed and flowed. We wondered about this discrepancy and dug through the numbers to find out where the problem may be.

At the end of 2024, Chiefs were taking 16.3 shots per game (1st in the league). They are down to 2nd at the moment, but overall are still the number 1 shit takers. Compare this with champions-elect Sundowns, whose volumes were so low in the first half of the season (9.8 shots per game in 2024 was the 5th-lowest in the league). That has improved in the Cardoso era, but any low volumes have been offset by efficiency and high quality.

We’ve used these xG bin charts to categorise all teams’ shots into four groups:

• Low quality
• Moderate quality
• Good quality
• High quality

From this, we can see that 17% of Sundowns’ shots can be considered moderate-to-high quality. For Chiefs, that’s only 12%, already showing that although Chiefs take many shots, many of them are from far away locations and difficult angles.

The shot maps below illustrate another point. While Chiefs are league leaders in chance creation and shot taking, their 7% shot conversion is the 12th highest in the league, and that immediately stands out. In other words, it is the 5th worst of all teams.

They are still in the Top 2 for xG, so one may argue that quality is not a problem, but due to their high shot volume, this metric may present a distorted picture. The Downs shot map has less white space in the box. They still convert way above average (18%), but is this a function of better shot selection (instead of massive shot volume)? Chiefs and Sundowns have virtually identical xG totals, but are on two different planets for goals scored. Yes, Chiefs take the most shots (and by loose definition, “create the most chances” – not every shot comes from a chance created, but that’s a story for another day). Yet, they average 0.095 xG per shot (5th worst in the league), compared to Downs’ 0.13 xg per shot (1st).

Chiefs are poised to reach the 400-shot mark at the end of the season (only three teams have done that in the last 5 years), but would they be better served taking fewer and closer shots from more central locations? Pushing players to take the highest quality shots possible may be the better way to go – taking higher value shots could result in more consistent scoring output.