UFC Fight Night: Whittaker v De Ridder Predictions

Another man who previously held a title, ex-bantamweight king Petr Yan, meets up-and-comer Marcus McGhee in the co-headliner.

Besides the main event, there is another fight in the 185-pound division on the main card, with Shara Magomedov battling Marc-Andre Barriault.

Plus, exciting flyweights Asu Almabayev and Jose Ochoa trade leather, and top-15 light heavyweights Nikita Krylov and Bogdan Guskov go toe-to-toe.

MAIN CARD:

When: Saturday, July 26, 9 PM SAST

Robert Whittaker (1.66) v Reinier de Ridder (2.10) (Middleweight)

One of the greatest middleweights of all time, Whittaker (26-8) held the title from 2017 to 2019 and has only lost to three men at 185 pounds – Israel Adesanya, the man who dethroned him, South Africa’s first-ever UFC champion Dricus du Plessis, and the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev.

This Saturday’s showdown is a crunch clash for “The Reaper” to prove he’s still one of the best and highlights his warrior mindset as he returns to the very venue of his last fight, in which he suffered the worst injury of his career, and against another submission specialist.

It was last October when Chimaev crushed Whittaker’s jaw and pushed in his bottom row of teeth with one of the nastiest face cranks in UFC history. The victory earned “Borz” a date with Du Plessis for the title next month, while it sidelined Whittaker until now.

Back at 100%, Whittaker looks to preserve his place at No. 5 in the rankings and start one more run at the title by handing De Ridder (20-2) his first loss inside the Octagon. A well-rounded mixed martial artist of the highest order, the Australian ace is one of the most complete middleweights in the world, with elite skills in every facet of MMA.

A grappling wizard from the Netherlands and former two-division champ in ONE Championship, De Ridder has wasted little time making his mark in the UFC.

He’s won all three of his fights in the world’s leading MMA promotion by finish, tapping out Gerald Meerschaert and Kevin Holland, which took his submission victories tally to 13, and bouncing Bo Nickal from the ranks of the unbeaten by stopping the wrestling phenom by TKO in May.

The latter victory showed “The Dutch Knight” is more than just a submission magician, but it’s no secret that his game plan will be to take the fight to the ground. The problem is he’s not as strong and explosive as Chimaev, so taking Whittaker down will prove challenging, as the decorated veteran has always had good defensive grappling.

Whittaker has been around for so long that one could mistakenly think he’s nearing 40. He’s only 34, the same age as De Ridder, and while he’s no longer in his prime, he’s far from washed up. His excellent takedown defence and conditioning, coupled with his vastly superior striking, should see Whittaker return to the win column.

Prediction: Whittaker by decision.

Best Bet: Whittaker at 1.66.

Alternative Bet: Whittaker by decision at 3.75.

Petr Yan (1.25) v Marcus McGhee (3.75) (Bantamweight)

All the pressure is on former bantamweight champion Yan (18-5) in this compelling co-main event clash that came out of left field.

Despite possibly being next in line for a title shot, the Russian is risking his No. 3 ranking against someone outside of the top 10 as he wants to stay active and fight twice this year. On one hand, it speaks to the confidence he has in his abilities, but on the other, it’s an unnecessary risk that could blow up in his face.

“No Mercy” has well and truly put a three-fight losing streak behind him with back-to-back victories over Song Yadong and Deiveson Figueiredo last year. One of the best pure boxers in the UFC, he’s a slow poison type of fighter with seven knockouts to his name and has never been stopped.

While lucky to a degree to get this high-profile fight, McGhee (10-1) has put in solid work to climb to No. 13 in the rankings. “The Maniac” is unbeaten after four outings inside the Octagon, one of which saw him knockout South Africa’s JP Buys in the first round in August 2023.

The heavy-handed southpaw has since beaten Gaston Bolanos and Jonathan Martinez and has a 90% finish rate (eight knockouts and one submission). He’s a late starter, having only made his pro debut in 2020, and has done a great job making up for lost time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1v6TsVqH8U

The American has everything to gain and nothing to lose, and while he was serious power for a 135-pounder, he lacks the polish to pull off the upset. Bank on Yan to deliver, most likely by decision.

Prediction: Yan by decision.

Best Bet: Yan by decision at 1.60.

Shara Magomedov (1.13) v Marc-Andre Barriault (5.50) (Middleweight)

The sparks will fly in this one. 

All eyes will be on Magomedov (15-1) to see how he responds to his first pro loss to Michael Page last time out. There’s no shame in losing to the uniquely skilled and nippy “Venom”, though, and this is a favourable matchup for Magomedov to bounce back.

Why is that? Because “Shara Bullet” will have a slower, more stationary target in front of him in the French Canadian. Barriault (17-9) is no pushover, but he’s also not one of the ranked contenders at middleweight, where Magomedov was and belongs.

“Powerbar” is just 6-8 with one no contest in the UFC but is coming off one of the best nights in his career, which saw him earn a performance bonus and a new contract with a first-round knockout of Bruno Silva in Montreal, so he’ll be feeling himself.

However, Magomedov’s speed and crispness will make him the last man standing in this clash of knockout artists.

Prediction: Magomedov by knockout.

Best Bet: Magomedov by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.66.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.60.

Asu Almabayev (1.85) v Jose Ochoa (1.90) (Flyweight)

We have a pick ‘em at flyweight, and I certainly know which way I’m going.

Almabayev (21-3) will be burning up inside with desire to get back on track after having his 17-fight win streak snapped by Manel Kape in March. In what was his first main event, “Zulfikar” ran into a buzzsaw who’s on the shortlist for a title shot.

Still ranked ninth, the Kazakhstan ace – who was originally scheduled to face Ramazan Temirov – looks to return to his dominant grappling ways against an exciting young prospect.

After falling short in a strong effort in his UFC debut last November, Ochoa (8-1) picked up his first win inside the Octagon in June, knocking out veteran Cody Durden to keep his 100% finish rate intact.

A flashy, fan-friendly striker, there’s much to like about the 24-year-old from Peru. However, he remains unproven at the highest level and has taken this fight on short notice.

Ochoa is exciting, but Almabayev is the more bankable option.

Prediction: Almabayev by decision.

Best Bet: Almabayev at 1.85.

Alternative Bet: Almabayev by decision (check markets).

Nikita Krylov (1.48) v Bogdan Guskov (2.55) (Light Heavyweight)

Dangerous light heavyweights in the top 15 will trade leather in what should be a thrilling main card opener.

A UFC veteran, Krylov (30-10) is more than seven years into his second stint on the roster. Well-rounded with 12 knockouts and 16 submissions to his name, “The Miner” was on a three-fight win streak that included a stoppage victory over Alexander Gustafsson prior to his knockout loss to the resurgent Dominick Reyes last time out.

Guskov (17-3) lost his short-notice promotional debut to Volkan Oezdemir, but has since responded with three straight victories to climb to No. 13 in the rankings, three spots behind his opponent this weekend.

He made light work of late replacement Billy Elekana in January, showing he’s not just a skilled striker with a second-round submission to push his record to 7-1 in his last eight fights.

With Krylov potentially ripe for the picking, “Czarevitch” is a solid underdog pick.

Prediction: Guskov by knockout.

Best Bet: Guskov at 2.55.

Alternative Bet: Guskov by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.55.