UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan v Hooker Predictions

Similarly, the co-headliner of the promotion’s debut event in Qatar could determine the next challenger for the welterweight gold as former champion Belal Muhammad battles Ian Machado Garry.

Volkan Oezdemir and Alonzo Menifield meet at light heavyweight, and Jack Hermansson goes head-to-head with Myktybek Orolbai at welterweight. Plus, Serghei Spivac squares off against Shamil Gaziev at heavyweight, and Alex Perez faces Asu Almabayev at flyweight.

MAIN CARD:

When: Saturday, November 22, 8 PM SAST:

Arman Tsarukyan (1.18) v Dan Hooker (4.75) (Lightweight)

Saturday’s headliners are polar opposites in personalities and fighting styles.

Tsarukyan (22-3) is a clean-cut athlete and competitor, whereas Hooker (24-12) is a heavily tattooed fighter. There’s a big difference. The former is a mixed martial artist driven by a competitive spirit and fuelled by elite athleticism. The latter is a scrapper with that dog in him, a warrior out for blood.   

Having won nine of his last 10 bouts, including a first-round knockout of Beneil Dariush and a split decision victory over former champion Charles Oliveira last time out, Tsarukyan had cemented himself as the No. 1 contender.

However, the Armenian ace pulled out of his scheduled title fight against then-champion Islam Makhachev in January due to a back issue the day before the event, a decision that did not go down well with UFC president Dana White.

As a result, he lost his championship opportunity and now has to earn it again by defeating the always dangerous Hooker. Now ranked second, Tsarukyan is methodical. Everything he does is calculated and technical.

A resurgent Hooker is on a three-fight win streak and plans to snatch the title shot for himself. The violent New Zealander loves nothing more than to stand and bang. Tsarukyan won’t get dragged into a brawl, but that doesn’t mean the heavy underdog has no chance.

He proved in his last fight against Mateusz Gamrot that he can fight off takedown attempts and upset a much-vaunted grappler, doing so by split decision. That was a three-rounder, though, instead of a five-round main event, and Tsarukyan is more effective in masking his shots.

On the feet, seventh-ranked Hooker has a clear edge as a world-class kickboxer, and as a tall and rangy 155-pounder, “The Hangman” will have a two-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. He could opt to stay on the outside and look to chip away, or go the other route and take the fight to Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan, on the other hand, will aim to outsmart his adversary. He’ll be patient and disciplined and will want to dictate terms with his superior wrestling and grappling. Every round starts on the feet, so Hooker has a puncher’s chance, but the tactical prowess and grappling expertise of Tsarukyan should see him pass this tricky test.

Prediction: Tsarukyan by decision.

Best Bet: Tsarukyan by decision at 3.00.

Alternative Bet: Tsarukyan by submission at 4.25.

Belal Muhammad (3.00) v Ian Machado Garry (1.38) (Welterweight)

Welterweight is the hottest division in the promotion after last weekend’s UFC 322.

Islam Makhachev dethroned Jack Della Maddalena to become the new king at 170 pounds, while undefeated Michael Morales and Carlos Prates shot into the top five courtesy of knockout wins over Sean Brady and Leon Edwards, respectively.

Saturday’s co-main eventers are in the title conversation as well. Muhammad (24-4) is in a tough spot, though, as he’s trained with Makhachev and likely won’t fight him. Machado Garry (16-1), meanwhile, could lock in his first shot at the gold with a big performance.

No. 2-ranked Muhammad is determined to bounce back from his title loss to Della Maddalena in May, which ended his remarkable 11-fight unbeaten run.

What makes him tough to deal with is his ability to mix striking and grappling seamlessly and relentlessly. Weaponising his cyborg-like conditioning, few can keep up with the pace “Remember The Name” pushes.

Sixth-ranked Machado Garry bounced back from his lone loss to unbeaten Shavkat Rakhmonov with a decision win over Prates in April to take his UFC record to 9-1.

Highly technical and uber-confident, “The Future” has been compared to his countryman Conor McGregor and uses his range, accuracy and agility to piece up opponents.

In what’s a compelling clash of styles, Muhammad is a high-value underdog. He’s never lost two in a row and I don’t see that happening on Saturday.

Prediction: Muhammad by decision.

Best Bet: Muhammad at 3.00.

Alternative Bet: Muhammad by decision at 4.25.

Volkan Oezdemir (1.42) v Alonzo Menifield (2.85) (Light Heavyweight)

Lethal light heavyweights will bring the heat in the featured bout.

A former title challenger, Oezdemir (20-8) has been a mainstay in the top 10 for years and has notable wins over Aleksandar Rakic, Paul Craig and Ovince St. Preux.

Currently ranked ninth, “No Time” doesn’t work by the hour, as his nickname suggests, and scored back-to-back first-round victories over Bogdan Guskov and Johnny Walker before dropping a decision to top contender Carlos Ulberg last time out.

Menifield (17-5-1) is an explosive power puncher who’s looking to take his career to the next level. Consecutive victories over Julius Walker and Oumar Sy see “Atomic” enter this clash high on confidence and momentum, and looking to complete his first hat-trick of wins in his UFC career.

Oezdemir is a level above Menifield for a reason, and in a battle of knockout artists, the Swiss’ crisper technique and superior hand speed will make him the last man standing.

Prediction: Oezdemir by knockout.

Best Bet: Oezdemir by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.35.

Alternative Bet: Oezdemir by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.05.

Jack Hermansson (2.95) v Myktybek Orolbai (1.38) (Welterweight)

These two men meet in the middle with Hermansson (24-9), a lifelong middleweight, dropping down to welterweight for the first time, and Orolbai (14-2-1) moving up.

Hermansson was a top 15 contender for most of his time at middleweight and defeated the likes of Jacare Souza and Kelvin Gastelum. However, he’s alternated wins and losses in his last 10 fights and was knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues last time out, prompting “The Joker” to seek a fresh start at 170 pounds.

Orolbai, meanwhile, started his UFC career with a submission win over Uros Medic at welterweight before moving to lightweight, beating Elves Brener and then splitting a pair of catchweight contests with Mateusz Rebecki and Tofiq Musayev.

The Kyrgyzstan veteran’s submission victory over Musayev in June made it eight wins in his last nine outings. On top of that, he’ll be at his healthiest and strongest back at welterweight, whereas Hermansson – at 37 – will have a tough time cutting weight and will feel it on fight night.

Thus, Orolbai should deliver as the favourite.

Prediction: Orolbai by decision.

Best Bet: Orolbai by decision at 2.75.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.85.

Serghei Spivac (2.10) v Shamil Gaziev (1.70) (Heavyweight)

A struggling Spivac (17-6) will seek to protect his place in the heavyweight top 10 in this one.

“The Polar Bear” propelled himself into the 265-pound elite by winning four out of five fights, including first-round submission victories over former title challenger Derrick Lewis and Marcin Tybura.

However, he’s hit his ceiling this year, first being TKO’d by Jailton Almeida in January and then being outpointed by Waldo Cortes-Acosta in June. With the pressure now on, the seventh-ranked Moldovan can ill-afford another L on Saturday.

Gaziev (14-1), in contrast, has been on the rise. He’s won two in a row since suffering the first loss of his career against Jair Rozenstruik last March, defeating Don’Tale Mayes by decision and Thomas Peterson by knockout to position himself at No. 11 in the rankings.

Gaziev has a clear advantage on the feet, and as long as his takedown defence – which has looked solid thus far – holds up, he’ll get past Spivac.

Prediction: Gaziev by knockout.

Best Bet: Gaziev by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.35.

Alternative Bet: Gaziev at 1.70.

Alex Perez (2.70) v Asu Almabayev (1.45) (Flyweight)

Top-10 flyweights will bring fast-paced action to the Octagon in the main card opener.

Perez (25-9) finds himself in a very difficult position. He’s not only lost four of his last five fights but is also coming back from a knee injury he suffered in his main event loss to Tatsuro Taira last time out.

A former title challenger, eighth-ranked Perez’s battle will be as mental as it will be physical, if not more so.

Ninth-ranked Almabayev didn’t start the year as he’d envisioned, losing to Manel Kape after being scratched across the eye in a sequence the referee did not see.

It was his first defeat since 2017, but he didn’t have to wait long to get back in the win column as he proved too good for Jose Ochoa in July.

A high-level grappler, Almabayev is confident, whereas Perez is carrying a lot of baggage into this bout, making “Zulfikar” the man to back.

Prediction: Almabayev by decision.

Best Bet: Almabayev by decision at 2.15.