UFC Fight Night: Strickland v Hernandez Predictions

Hard-hitting welterweights Geoff Neal and Uros Medic meet in the co-main event, while another clash at 170 pounds pits Jacobe Smith against Josiah Harrell.

Also on the main card, top-10 heavyweights Serghei Spivac and Ante Delija duke it out, featherweight veteran Dan Ige faces Melquizael Costa, and Zachary Reese battles Michel Pereira at middleweight.

Sean Strickland (3.10) v Anthony Hernandez (1.38) (Middleweight)

MAIN CARD:

Sunday, February 8, 3 AM SAST

He’s back.

South African-based fight fans know Strickland (29-7) all too well after his series of bouts with the country’s first and only UFC champion, Dricus du Plessis.

The outspoken American had excuses after dropping the middleweight title to “Stillknocks” in their first meeting in January 2024 and now, a year after being pieced up in the lopsided rematch, claims he was pressured into the sequel by the UFC despite carrying an injury.

All of his talking will finally turn into action when he takes on the red-hot Hernandez (15-2) in this weekend’s high-stakes headliner. Although not confirmed, Nassourdine Imavov is expected to be the first man to challenge new champion Khamzat Chimaev, who dethroned Du Plessis by decision in August.

A nasty, non-stop savage, Hernandez is on an eight-fight win streak and can all but lock in his first title shot with a victory over ex-champion Strickland. “Tarzan”, in turn, can put himself right back in the title picture by taking down the high-flying “Fluffy.”

For a man who loves to proclaim he’ll “fight to the death”, third-ranked Strickland is no killer inside the Octagon. He’s a tricky tactician, methodical rather than marauding. 

The only high-level mixed martial arts fighter to use the Philly Shell, he prioritises defence over offence. His entire game is based on constant forward pressure, and he employs endless jabs and teep kicks to back up and wear down his counterpart.

Fourth-ranked “Fluffy” weaponizes his cardio and fights at a high pace. He’s a relentless grappler who doesn’t give an opponent time to breathe and boasts eight wins by submission. His chain wrestling is exhausting, his striking is underrated, and he has a high fight IQ.

Du Plessis showed that to beat Strickland, you have to be the one constantly going forward. That just so happens to be Hernandez’s M.O. so I expect him to get his hand raised and cement a well-earned championship opportunity.

Prediction: Hernandez by decision.

Best Bet: Hernandez by decision at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.80.

Geoff Neal (1.45) v Uros Medic (2.70) (Welterweight)

The co-main event promises to be a fire-fight as the aggressive Medic (12-3) aims to take his veteran foe’s place in the welterweight top 15.

Neal (16-7) has mixed it up with some of the best at 170 pounds over the years and boasts notable wins over the likes of Mike Perry, the current King of Violence in the Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship, and two former champions in Belal Muhammad and Rafael dos Anjos.

A power puncher with 10 knockouts to his name, “Handz of Steel” is 1-3 in his last four fights, but those losses were against top contenders Shavkat Rakhmonov, Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates. Ranked 12th, he has a history of turning back those outside the rankings trying to take his spot and will look to do just that against Medic.  

Not one to work by the hour, “The Doctor” is coming off back-to-back 63-second knockouts of Muslim Salikhov and Gilbert Urbina and has never been to the scorecards in his 15-fight career. His 100% finish rate consists of 10 knockouts and two submissions, while he’s been KO’d once and tapped out twice. 

There are levels to mixed martial arts, and Neal is primed to show why he’s a mainstay in the top 15.

Prediction: Neal by knockout.

Best Bet: Neal by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.75.

Dan Ige (2.75) v Melquizael Costa (1.44) (Featherweight)

Similar to Neal, Ige (19-10) is a veteran gatekeeper of his division who has to fend off an oncoming threat to preserve his place at No. 14 at 145 pounds.

The Hawaiian is one of the gamest fighters in the UFC, once stepping up on four hours’ notice to face Diego Lopes. As someone who takes on anyone, anywhere, anytime, results don’t always go his way. In fact, he’s won just two of his last six fights.

Outworked by former Bellator champion Patricio Pitbull last time out, “50K” now faces a surging Brazilian who had a breakout 2025.

Costa (25-7) racked up four wins last year and capped things off by KO’ing Morgan Charriere with a head kick in December. “The Dalmatian” is as good on the ground as he is on the feet and is on a five-fight win streak overall.

As crafty as Ige is, his last few fights have shown that he’s lost a step, and the younger, faster Costa should continue his momentum and break into the top 15.

Prediction: Costa by decision.

Best Bet: Costa by decision at 1.72.

Serghei Spivac (2.30) v Ante Delija (1.60) (Heavyweight)

The heavyweight division is at the lowest point it’s been in years…possibly ever.

Given that, now is the time for contenders to step up and show out. Fight fans are begging the big men to show some urgency and intensity, and two members of the top 10 get their moment in the spotlight in Texas.   

It’s a classic battle between a grappler in Spivac (17-6) and a striker in Delija (26-7). Whoever manages to implement their game plan will leave victorious, and given the state of affairs, they should have added motivation to make a statement. 

Both men are looking to get back in the win column. Seventh-ranked Spivac will be particularly desperate to turn things around as the Moldovan man mountain is on a two-fight skid, losing to Jailton Almeida and Waldo Cortes-Acosta in his two bouts last year.

Ninth-ranked Delija put the division on notice by making light work of Marcin Tybura in his UFC debut in September, and looked as if he’d doubled down by stopping Cortes-Acosta two months later.

However, the referee ruled that the Croatian colossus had poked “Salsa Boy” in the eye and restarted the fight. Delija’s adrenaline dump proved to be his downfall as he was stopped moments after thinking he’d scored a knockout of his own.

Known as “Walking Trouble”, he has 13 career knockouts and while he’s somewhat unproven in the UFC, he should put “The Polar Bear” down.

Prediction: Delija by knockout.

Best Bet: Delija by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.05.

Alternative Bet: Delija at 1.60.

Jacobe Smith (1.35) v Josiah Harrell (3.10) (Welterweight)

Undefeated welterweights with identical 11-0 records scrap to see who stays perfect.

Smith has the advantage going into the bout as he’s had a full training camp. Harrell, meanwhile, has come in on short notice to replace SeokHyeon Ko.

Two additional factors contribute to Smith being the favourite. He’s proven himself inside the Octagon with stoppage wins in his first two fights in the promotion, and has more tools at his disposal as a decorated collegiate wrestler with good striking.

For Harrell, this is a second chance to make a first impression after his initial shot was taken away from him in the cruellest of ways, when medical tests revealed he suffered from a rare brain condition called Moyamoya disease.

Refusing to give up on his dream, “Muscle Hamster” claimed four more wins since then and has now received the call – and given the all clear – to finally step inside the Octagon.

All signs point to Smith getting the job done, but by stepping up, Harrell should get another chance to show what he’s capable of with a full camp.

Prediction: Smith by knockout.

Best Bet: Smith by KO/TKO/DQ (check markets).

Alternative Bet: Smith by decision (check markets).

Zachary Reese (2.15) v Michel Pereira (1.66) (Middleweight)

Local favourite Reese (10-2) will have the crowd on his side when he opens the main card against the potent Pereira (31-14). These are two all-action 185-pounders, so it should be a barnburner.

Unbeaten in his last three fights, Reese defeated Dusko Todorovic by decision before his bout with Sedriques Dumas ended in a no-contest due to an accidental groin kick. “Savage” ended 2025 with a submission win over Jackson McVey and will be eager to start his 2026 campaign with a bang in his home state.

Once a wild man who did backflips and all sorts of crazy things mid-fight, Pereira found the perfect balance of controlled aggression to put together an eight-fight win streak. 

His red-hot run earned him a main event showdown with Hernandez, this weekend’s headliner, which marked the Brazilian’s decline. Finished in the fifth round, it snapped one streak and started another, with Pereira now on a three-fight slide. 

“Demolidor” is a step up in competition for Reese, but one the American should pass with his well-roundedness and four-inch reach advantage.

Prediction: Reese by knockout.

Best Bet: Reese at 2.15.

Alternative Bet: Reese by KO/TKO/DQ (check markets).