UFC Fight Night: Moreno v Kavanagh Predictions

Adding further star power to UFC Mexico are former bantamweight title challenger Marlon Vera, who’s in the co-main event, and veteran lightweight scrapper King Green, who’s in the featured bout.

Moreno headlines a small army of Mexican warriors who’ll throwdown on home soil. David Martinez, Daniel Zellhuber, Edgar Chairez and the undefeated duo of Imanol Rodriguez and Santiago Luna will all look to defend their yard against foreign threats on the main card.

Brandon Moreno (1.45) v Lone’er Kavanagh (2.70) (Flyweight)

A man who personifies the Mexican fighting spirit, Moreno (23-9-2) is a gold-blooded trailblazer. Mexico’s first-ever UFC champion, “The Assassin Baby” is a bona fide legend and future Hall of Famer.

However, the latter distinction will have to wait as he still has plenty of fight left in him, despite suffering a loss unlike any other last time out. In December, he was stopped for the first time in his career, and he’s hell-bent on bouncing back from that TKO loss to Tatsuro Taira.

Prior to that, the 32-year-old recorded back-to-back wins over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg to move closer to another title shot, but he’s now left having to start another run as the No. 6-ranked contender.

Originally scheduled to face Asu Almabayev, Moreno will now face one of the most highly regarded prospects in the division. England’s Kavanagh (9-1) jumped at the opportunity to replace the injured Almabayev and swoop in on what will be his maiden UFC main event.

The former Cage Warriors standout started his UFC career with decision wins over Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos before suffering his first-career loss when Charles Johnson knocked him out in August.

With a chance of a lifetime having presented itself, that defeat is now a distant memory for the fired-up 26-year-old, who has nothing to lose and everything to gain this weekend.

This is no small step but rather a giant leap up in competition for the No. 15-ranked Kavanagh considering Moreno’s class and the fact that Kavanagh hasn’t had a full training camp.

Primarily a striker, Kavanagh could be dangerous early. Moreno, who’s heading into his sixth main event, will know this and will use his vast experience and all-around game to return to winning ways and send the crowd home happy.

Prediction: Moreno by decision.

Best Bet: Moreno by decision at 2.75.

Alternative Bet: Moreno by submission at 4.25.

Marlon Vera (3.45) v David Martinez (1.30) (Bantamweight)

The co-main event is also a clash between a veteran presence in the top 10 and a newcomer to the elite group.

This one is at bantamweight, where Vera (23-11-1) will be desperate to snap a three-fight losing streak dating back to his title fight with then-champion Sean O’Malley in March 2024.

Ninth-ranked “Chito” is a notoriously slow starter and only has himself to blame for the decisions not going his way as of late. When it comes to Vera, who has been in the UFC since 2014, the big question is, can an old dog learn new tricks?

In contrast. Martinez (13-1) is on a roll. The 27-year-old is on a nine-fight win streak, and earned himself the No. 10 spot in the rankings by outworking Rob Font in September.

“Doctor” is a fast and dynamic striker. Fighting in perpetual motion sees him land 4.85 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.95. Against an older, slower and very hittable opponent, that gives him a decisive advantage.

Vera has both an iron chin and will and has never been stopped, so Martinez is set to win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Martinez by decision.

Best Bet: Martinez by decision at 1.55.

Daniel Zellhuber (1.18) v King Green (4.75) (Lightweight)

The featured bout is one centred on the circle of life. It’s a young lion in 26-year-old Zellhuber (15-3) taking on an old lion in 39-year-old Green (33-17-1).

The former is an explosive, rangy and unpredictable striker whose best years are yet to come, while the latter is a grizzled brawler whose best years are behind him.

Zellhuber still has a lot to learn, as his back-to-back losses in his most recent fights suggest, but this is a great matchup for “Golden Boy.” King is as wily as you’d expect a veteran of over 50 professional fights to be, and won against Lance Gibson last time out.

However, Zellhuber is quick as a flash and will utilise his speed and six-inch reach advantage to clean King’s clock.

Prediction: Zellhuber by knockout. 

Best Bet: Zellhuber by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.50.

Edgar Chairez (1.25) v Felipe Bunes (3.75) (Flyweight)

Two flyweights with finishing ability collide in this one.

Entering his homecoming event, where he knocked out CJ Vergara last year, with a 2-2 UFC record and one no contest suggests Chairez (12-6) will likely not make any major waves in the promotion, but context is needed. Those losses were to title contender Taira, on short notice, and champion Joshua Van, so there’s no shame in that.

Late to the party, 36-year-old Bunes has only made three Octagon appearances, sandwiching a submission win over Jose Johnson between losses to Van and the unbeaten Rafael Estevam.

Chairez’s pressure, vastly greater output and grappling will be too much for “Felipinho” and his measly 40% takedown defence to handle.

Prediction: Chairez by stoppage.

Best Bet: Chairez by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.72.

Alternative Bet: Chairez by submission at 3.40.

Imanol Rodriguez (1.20) v Kevin Borjas (4.33) (Flyweight)

All eyes will be on Rodriguez (6-0) as he makes his UFC debut on home soil.

“Hitman” made it to the semi-finals on Season 33 of The Ultimate Fighter, losing to eventual winner Joseph Morales by split decision. Fights on TUF don’t count on fighters’ records, so Rodriguez is officially 6-0 after his contract-winning stoppage of Roque Conceicao on Dana White’s Contender Series in October.

Borjas (10-4) has battled at the highest level. He’s 1-3 in the UFC and lost to Sumudaerji last time out. “El Gallo Negro” is a striker from Peru with plenty of power, which has earned his eight knockouts, but things aren’t clicking for him yet inside the Octagon.

Rodriquez, on the other hand, is dialled in. He’s ultra-dangerous as well and should keep his 100% finishing rate intact in a successful promotional debut.

Prediction: Rodriguez by knockout. 

Best Bet: Rodriguez by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Rodriguez by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.72.

Santiago Luna (1.15) v Angel Pacheco (5.25) (Bantamweight)

The party-starting duties fall to Luna, a prodigious talent tasked with setting the tone for the local fighters in the main card opener.

The 21-year-old already has six pro fights under his belt and has yet to taste defeat. He signalled his arrival in the UFC in style by knocking out Quang Le in September and promises to put on a show for his home crowd.

Pacheco (7-3), meanwhile, hasn’t tasted victory in ages. The American was signed by the UFC despite losing his fight against Danny Silva on the Contender Series in 2023, and also fell short against Caolan Loughran in his promotional debut in 2024.

Luna’s speed, momentum and four-inch reach advantage will be big in this fight against a struggling 34-year-old opponent who hasn’t fought in nearly two years.

Both men have 100% finishing rates, so this should be fun for as long as it lasts until Luna scores a popular win.

Prediction: Luna by knockout. 

Best Bet: Luna by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.83.