UFC Fight Night: Moicano v Duncan Predictions

The co-headliner will see top-10 strawweights Virna Jandiroba and Tabatha Ricci rumble. Also on the main card are three undefeated fighters – light heavyweight Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev, who battles Brendson Ribeiro; bantamweight Rafael Estevam, who faces Ethyn Ewing; and featherweight newcomer Tommy McMillen, who takes on Manolo Zecchini.

Renato Moicano (2.45) v Chris Duncan (1.53) (Lightweight)

MAIN CARD:

Sunday, April 5, 2 AM SAST

Lightweights on opposite trajectories collide in the main event.

A mainstay in the top 10, Moicano (20-7-1) is in danger of losing his place among the very best at 155 pounds following back-to-back defeats last year.

“Money” was on a four-fight win streak before he accepted an opportunity of a lifetime to fight for the title as a late replacement for Arman Tsarukyan in January.

It was not to be for the Brazilian, as he was submitted by then-champion Makhachev in the first round, and dropping a decision to Beneil Dariush in July saw him slide down to No. 10 in the rankings.

Meanwhile, Duncan (15-2) has been doing work. Living up to his nickname, “The Problem” has put together a four-fight win streak with three finishes to earn this maiden main event.

As two men adept at finishing fights, the headliners should put on a show. An interesting added layer to the bout is the fact that they are no strangers to one another as training partners at American Top Team. This one, therefore, isn’t personal – it’s business, and big business at that.

Moicano has the advantage when it comes to experience, especially high-level experience, with this being his fourth time headlining a UFC event. However, timing is everything in the fight game. At 36, Moicano’s best days are behind him, whereas the younger Duncan is in his prime and should prevail to break into the top 10.

Prediction: Duncan by TKO.

Best Bet: Duncan by KO/TKO/DQ (check markets).

Alternative Bet: Duncan by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.90

Virna Jandiroba (1.85) v Tabatha Ricci (1.93) (Strawweight)

The co-headliner has high stakes as a place in the strawweight top five hangs in the balance.

Jandiroba (22-4) will be determined to hold onto her No. 3 ranking, while seventh-ranked Ricci (12-3) will do whatever it takes to seize her countrywoman’s spot and move closer to a title shot.

Speaking of title shots, Jandiroba fought for the vacant belt last time out. “Carcara” came up short, losing on the scorecards to Mackenzie Dern, which snapped her five-fight win streak.

A rising contender who’s coming into her own, Ricci made a serious splash last July by stopping the highly rated Amanda Ribas. “Baby Shark” has won seven of her nine fights at 115 pounds and is now circling her biggest catch yet.

What makes Jandiroba a tough opponent is not just her world-class grappling but her veteran savviness. At 37, though, she’ll struggle to get a hold of the speedy Ricci. With momentum, speed and youth on her side, I’m backing Ricci in this battle of Brazilians.

Prediction: Ricci by decision.

Best Bet: Ricci at 1.93.

Alternative Bet: Ricci by decision at 2.20.

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (1.05) v Brendson Ribeiro (9.50) (Light Heavyweight)

These fighters’ nicknames tell you what you need to know about the featured bout.

You have “The Hunter” in the undefeated Yakhyaev, and “The Gorilla” in Ribeiro (17-9). The former is an absolute killer, a berserker with plenty of buzz, while the latter is a lamb to the slaughter.

It’s very rare that we see such overwhelming odds in mixed martial arts. However, with Chechen-born Yakhyaev having a perfect record of 8-0 with seven finishes (six in the first round), and Ribeiro coming off consecutive first-round knockout losses, it’s clear that the Brazilian is being fed to his vaunted foe.

Prediction: Yakhyaev by knockout.

Best Bet: Yakhyaev by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.74.

Ethyn Ewing (1.66) v Rafael Estevam (2.15) (Bantamweight)

After defying the odds last time out, Ewing (9-2) aims to prove he’s no flash in the pan by passing another tough test.

The man known as “Professor Finesse” came out of nowhere and grabbed headlines when he stepped up on very short notice and upset Malcolm Wellmaker in November.

Wellmaker had destroyed all his previous opponents, including South Africa’s Cameron Saaiman, so it came as a major shock when UFC newcomer Ewing handed him his first loss.

The American has hardly been given a ‘thank you’ gift from the promotion for stepping up like he did as he’s been paired up with another undefeated fighter in Estevam.

The Brazilian is 14-0, however, it hasn’t all been smooth sailing for “Macapa”, who was guilty of missing weight in two of his three UFC outings.

This is a very intriguing clash as we get to see what the impressive Ewing can do, having had a full training camp this time around, and we get a first look at Estevam in his new weight class.

Ewing did more than enough in his stunning UFC debut to earn the favourite tag and my backing for his second Octagon appearance.

Prediction: Ewing by decision.

Best Bet: Ewing at 1.66.

Alternative Bet: Ewing by decision at 2.75.

Tommy McMillen (1.07) v Manolo Zecchini (8.00) (Featherweight)

Young, hungry and unbeaten, McMillen will be out to make the most of his UFC debut in the main card opener.

The American will step inside the Octagon at 28 with a flawless record of 9-0 with eight finishes. “Gun” is clearly dangerous, but what I like about him is the grit he showed to win on the scorecards for the first time on Dana White’s Contender Series last September.

We haven’t seen Zecchini (11-4) since he pulled a Houdini after losing his debut to Morgan Charriere in September 2023. The Italian has heavy hands and nine knockouts to prove it, but is he UFC material?

The odds are stacked in McMillen’s favour for a reason, as he should ground “Angelo Veneziano” and force him to submit with his vastly superior grappling.

Prediction: McMillen by submission.

Best Bet: McMillen by submission at 1.74.

Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.61.