UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena v Prates Predictions  

Della Maddalena headlines a quartet of Australian fighters who’ll showcase their skills on the main card. They are lightweight prospect Quillan Salkilld, who battles Beneil Dariush in the co-main event, former flyweight title challenger Steve Erceg, who takes on Tim Elliott, and heavyweights Tai Tuivasa and Brando Pericic, who lock horns with Louie Sutherland and Shamil Gaziev, respectively.

Jack Della Maddalena (1.95) v Carlos Prates (1.83) (Welterweight Championship)

MAIN CARD:

Saturday, May 2, 1 PM SAST

It was at UFC 322 at Madison Square Garden last November where the wheels for Saturday’s blockbuster main event were set in motion.

Prates was up first in the world’s most famous arena and made a spectacular statement by knocking out former champion Leon Edwards. No one had ever wrecked “Rocky” quite like the Brazilian, who improved his record to 23-7 and took a big step towards a maiden title shot.

In that evening’s headliner, Della Maddalena lost the 170-pound title to pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev. The Dagestani ace had vacated the 155-pound belt after cleaning out the lightweight division and shut down Della Maddalena with his overwhelming wrestling to become just the 11th fighter in UFC history to win a championship in two different weight classes.  

The stinging decision loss snapped the Australian ace’s remarkable 18-fight win streak (nine in the UFC), which culminated in him beating Belal Muhammad for the belt, and dropped his record to 18-3.

Given the timing of his defeat and Prates’ triumph, it made sense that the two should square off next, and after much anticipation, we’ll get to see that pay-per-view quality matchup this weekend. 

No. 1-ranked Della Maddalena was unbeaten inside the Octagon and hadn’t lost since 2016 before his last fight, so it’ll be interesting to see how he responds.

Having followed his career extensively, I know him to have a good head on his shoulders. The 29-year-old doesn’t get emotional and is more machine than man when it comes to mixed martial arts competition.

His ability to stay calm in chaos and stick to his game plan will serve him particularly well in this clash against the unpredictable Prates. So, too, will his elite fight IQ. One of the best boxers in the UFC, he has 12 wins by knockout, but doesn’t force things or chase the finish.

Fifth-ranked Prates is the opposite. It would be unfair to say he’s reckless, but he does have wild moments where he takes chances. Generally, it works out for him, as he’s 6-1 in the UFC, with all of those wins coming by knockout. “The Nightmare” is as lethal as they come and a master of the art of eight limbs.

That said, it’s his lone defeat inside the Octagon that stands out to me as it pertains to Saturday’s showdown. It was just over a year ago that he fought and dropped a five-round decision to Ian Machado Garry. The Irishman is known for being a sharp tactician and was able to outpoint Prates, despite stepping up on short notice.

With Prates, there’s always danger, but like Machado Garry, Della Maddalena should be able to outwit and outwork the 32-year-old to bounce back on home soil.

Prediction: Della Maddalena by decision.

Best Bet: Della Maddalena at 1.95.

Alternative Bet: Della Maddalena by decision at 4.00.

Beneil Dariush (4.33) v Quillan Salkilld (1.20) (Lightweight)

Hometown hero Salkilld (11-1) gets a crack at breaking into the lightweight top 15 when he squares off against veteran Dariush (23-7-1) in the co-main event.

An unassuming savage, Salkilld has taken the UFC by storm. A sensational 19-second knockout over Anshul Jubli in his promotional debut last February set the tone for a thrilling and impressive first year on the roster, which included three more victories, including another highlight-reel KO of Nasrat Haqparast and tapping out Jamie Mullarkey.

Dariush, meanwhile, blew hot and cold in his two 2025 outings. He made a successful return from injury with a decision win over former title challenger Renato Moicano in June, but was stopped in his tracks by Benoit Saint Denis in November, with the Frenchman knocking him out in just 16 seconds.

Worryingly for No. 12-ranked “Benny”, the loss to Saint Denis was the third time in four fights that he’d been stopped in the first round, and all signs point to that trend continuing in Perth. It’s clear that he’s lost a step, and that spells doom against a red-hot rising star with fast hands who’s a decade younger than him.   

Prediction: Salkilld by knockout.

Best Bet: Salkilld by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.55.

Alternative Bet: Salkilld in round one at 2.35.

Tim Elliott (3.20) v Steve Erceg (1.33) (Flyweight)

Skilled flyweight stalwarts face off in the featured bout. While both men are in the top 15, they have the all-round games to be higher up on the ladder.

Elliott (21-13-1) returned from a near-two-year injury-enforced absence last August and reminded everyone of his class by submitting Kai Asakura, who’d challenged for the title in his previous fight.

Erceg (13-4), meanwhile, will make the walk in front of his home crowd with a burning desire to return to his former heights. Success came thick and fast for “Astro Boy”, who earned a title shot less than a year into his UFC career in 2024.

He took champion Alexandre Pantoja to the limit but succumbed by decision, a devastating defeat that led to two more to Kai Kara-France and former champion Brandon Moreno, before he got back on track by outpointing Ode Osbourne last August.

Erceg is ranked one place below Elliott at the moment in 12th but is younger (by nine years), faster, rangier and the more technical striker, while he also has the grappling ability to avoid getting dragged into dangerous situations. Thus, the 30-year-old should get his hand raised.

Prediction: Erceg by decision.

Best Bet: Erceg by decision at 1.83.

TShamil Gaziev (2.05) v Brando Pericic (1.75) (Heavyweight)

The second of two main card heavyweight collisions will see prolific finishers collide.

For local favourite Pericic (6-1), it’s his first crack at a ranked opponent. Not one to work by the hour, “The Balkan Bear” boasts a 100% finishing rate, with all of his wins – including his first two Octagon bouts against Elisha Ellison and Louie Sutherland – coming in the first round.

Gaziev (14-2) goes into enemy territory hoping to hold onto his No. 14 ranking. The Bahrain brute has a dozen stoppages to his name, including nine knockouts, and has had ups and downs inside the Octagon. He’s 3-2 in the UFC and was finished by fourth-ranked Waldo Cortes-Acosta last time out.

This is a significant step up in competition for Pericic, but his athleticism, explosiveness and striking ability should see him get the job done.  

Prediction: Pericic by knockout.

Best Bet: Pericic by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Pericic at 1.75.

Tai Tuivasa (1.48) v Louie Sutherland (2.60) Heavyweight)

One of the biggest fan favourites in the UFC will kick off the main card in Tuivasa (14-9)

An entertainer from the moment he makes the walk to the Octagon, “Bam Bam” fancies comical entrance songs, including once coming out to a Spice Girls tune, throws caution to the wind and has a trademark shoey celebration.

An old-school knockout artist, he has big wins over the likes of Stefan Struve and former title challenger Derrick Lewis and was in the top 10 for a considerable time before the wheels came off.

Having dropped six fights in a row, the beloved Aussie brawler is one defeat away from tying Tony Ferguson and BJ Penn for the second-worst losing streak in UFC history.

With respect to Sutherland (10-5), if Tuivasa can’t beat him, he shouldn’t be fighting anymore. Why is that? For one, the Scot is replacing Sean Sharaf on very short notice, and two, he lost both of his UFC fights in the first round.

Chalk up a much-needed and popular win for Tuivasa.

Prediction: Tuivasa by knockout.

Best Bet: Tuivasa by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.75.