Judgment Day: Jake v Joshua Preview and Prediction

Jake Paul (7.00) v Anthony Joshua (1.10) (Heavyweight) 6 AM Saturday SA time

6 AM Saturday SA time

Be careful what you wish for, because you just might get it.

That old adage springs to mind when it comes to Paul, a former Disney star and YouTuber, accepting this, his first real and serious test in a boxing ring, since he began his farcical journey in the sport five years ago.

He’s fought fellow YouTubers, an NBA player, over-the-hill mixed martial arts stars, journeymen boxers no one had ever heard of, a 58-year-old Mike Tyson and a 39-year-old Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

And then there’s Tommy Fury. The brother of heavyweight great Tyson Fury is the only half-decent boxer roughly the same age and size as Paul that the 28-year-old has fought, and he predictably lost.

That decision defeat in 2023 remains the only loss on Paul’s record, which after his points win over Chavez Jr in June, stands at 12-1 with seven knockouts.

For his latest bout, “The Problem Child” has gone from one extreme to the other. Originally scheduled to face WBA lightweight champion Gervonta “Tank” Davis in an exhibition bout in which Paul would’ve had a massive size advantage last month, the fight was cancelled in the wake of a lawsuit filed against Davis by his ex-girlfriend that accused him of battery, aggravated battery, false imprisonment, kidnapping and intentional infliction of emotional distress.

Now, Paul will face Joshua, an opponent 100 pounds heavier than Davis, in a professionally sanctioned heavyweight boxing match scheduled for eight rounds, in which the combatants will wear the standard 10-ounce gloves, on Netflix. For the first time in his career, Paul will be the smaller man as he usually fights at the cruiserweight limit of 200 pounds and weighed 227 pounds in his exhibition against Tyson, whereas Joshua has to cut weight to make the 245-pound limit for this fight.

Money and the pursuit of infamy, disguised as a quest for respect, has brought Paul to this precarious place. He’s set to share a £100m purse evenly with Joshua, according to SunSport, while Daily Mail Sport says the figure might be as high as £140m split two ways.

Whatever the final amount will be, that’s the price Paul is putting on his health. You don’t play boxing like you do other sports. It’s one of the most dangerous sports in the world, one that’s led to numerous deaths over the years, so as much as many are counting down the days until “AJ” finally puts an end to the circus that is Paul’s boxing career, this is a fight that should never have been sanctioned.

Although not in his prime, 36-year-old Joshua remains world-class and is eager to return to his former heights. The muscle-bound Brit is not only a former two-time unified heavyweight champion but also an Olympic gold medallist, making him a nightmare matchup for Paul.

Packing devastating one-punch knockout power and programmed with elite technical prowess, Joshua’s record stands at 28-4 with 25 knockouts. His knockout loss to then-IBF heavyweight champion Daniel Dubois last time out snapped his four-fight winning streak and highlighted that his already suspect chin is close to being gone.   

That’s what Paul is bargaining on, catching Joshua with one big punch to shock the world and pull off what, in my opinion, would be the biggest upset in boxing history. Joshua knows this, and he knows the ludicrously ambitious American’s best hope is an overhand right, so he’ll have that scouted.

The last time Joshua faced a boxing novice, he destroyed former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou in two rounds last March. This is an even riskier fight for him than that bout, as a loss to Paul would signal the end of his career and tarnish his legacy as one of the best heavyweights of his generation.

Because of this, I think Joshua will take this seriously, which leads to only one outcome: Paul lying motionless on the canvas. I’m not fond of the kid, but I hope he doesn’t get seriously hurt.

Prediction: Joshua by knockout.

Best Bet: Check closer to the fight for Overs/Unders and go for under two or three rounds.

Alternative Bet: Joshua by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.25.